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We build a demand model in which customers react smart to retail promotions through stockpiling and package size switching. The demand model combines a customer choice model with a model in which customers differ in their stockpiling and reservation price levels. We utilize data from the German grocery industry for an empirical fitting of the model. We then develop a store-level inventory model for each SKU and optimize price promotions to maximize expected profit.

We show the benefit of capturing the smart customer response to price promotions by demonstrating its impact on the reduced inventory costs. We use the model to generate a number of managerial implications of the model for the German grocery environment. Managerial flexibility has value in the context of uncertain R…D projects, as management can repeatedly gather information about uncertain project and market characteristics and, based on this information, change its course of action. The intuition from options pricing theory is that higher uncertainty in project payoffs increases the real option value of managerial decision flexibility.

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However, R…D managers face uncertainty not only in payoffs, but also from many other sources. We identify five example types of R…D uncertainty, in market payoffs, project budgets, product performance, market requirements, and project schedules. How do they influence the value from managerial flexibility? In addition, variability may reduce the probability of flexibility ever being exercised, which also reduces its value.

This result runs counter to established option pricing theory intuition and contributes to a better risk management in R…D projects.

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Our model builds intuition for R…D managers as to when it is and when it is not worthwhile to delay commitments—for example, by postponing a design freeze, thus maintaining flexibility in R…D projects. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming formulation for the valuation of global manufacturing strategy options with switching costs. Overall, we adopt a hierarchical approach. First, exchange rates are modeled as stochastic diffusion processes that exhibit intercountry correlation. Second, the firm's global manufacturing strategy determines options for alternative product designs as well as supply chain network designs.

Product options introduce international supply flexibility. Supply chain network options determine the firm's manufacturing flexibility through production capacity and supply chain network linkages. Third, switching costs determine the cost of operational hedging, i. In this environment, the firm must trade off fixed operating costs, switching costs, and the economic benefits derived from exploiting differentials in factor costs and corporate tax rates.

A multinomial approximation of correlated exchange rate processes is proposed that leads to a consistent and tractable lattice model for this compound option valuation problem. We then demonstrate how the global manufacturing strategy planning model framework can be utilized to analyze financial and operational hedging strategies. Abstract: In case of a fixed tact system, raising the number of products to be assembled on a single line results in increased idle time as well as utility work and often requires an expansion of the line.

To the contrary, a variable tact time approach is able to eliminate such line inefficiencies altogether, and diminishes the computational effort associated with line balancing and sequencing.

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We present a benchmark study of a global manufacturer of agricultural machinery where models differ greatly in assembly times and each product is uniquely customized. Abstract: We develop the first general framework for category selection in targeted marketing based on segmenting customers in terms of churn, frequency, and loyalty. For the latter attribute, we propose a novel data-mining methodology that can distinguish between customers who shop at several retailers versus mostly at a single retailer. Using our framework, marketing managers can identify customers to target with category-specific promotions and with what objective function to target them.

Our analysis reveals that the personalized targeting strategy exploits the full potential of customized marketing by optimizing the trade-off between CLV considerations and short-term campaign profitability. Abstract: Should a company outsource or offshore development?

Globally operating organizations that develop complex products are faced with the question of how to efficiently decompose and allocate product development work across geographic, or organizational boundaries. The decisions must clearly depend on characteristics of the product such as its architecture or its innovativeness. Based on an extensive data set involving all development projects of one of the largest car manufacturers worldwide, we study how different product characteristics affect the relationship between outsourcing and offshoring and product quality in complex product development.

On May 5th, , Thilo Scholz presented in the Operational Excellence track at the POMS Conference in Washington D. Arnd Huchzermeier and Torsten Kühlmann. Arnd Huchzermeier at the 4 th European Working Group Meeting on Retail Operations.


The conference is organized by Professor Victor Martinez de Albeniz from IESE Business School, Barcelona, Spain. Abstract: Large organizations that develop complex products are faced with the question of how to allocate and decompose product development work across geographic, legal or organizational boundaries. It offers immense potential to flexibility, innovative capability, as well as time and cost savings.

Nonetheless, the implementation continues being a challenge to many companies in practice. Based on an extensive data collection of one of the biggest car manufacturer worldwide, we examine the performance of offshoring, outsourcing and the network effects in product development. Abstract: Introduction of new models on an assembly line pools demand risk, but also increases costs of idle time, utility work and space.

By opening up station boundaries and introducing variable rate, launching instead of a fixed tact time reduces all costs simultaneously. Moreover, the overall line length is reduced significantly. Abstract: Maintaining strong customer relationships is a top priority for retailers. We develop a framework for proactive retention management based on data from a German hypermarket chain.

We propose a novel definition of partial defection in noncontractual settings, demonstrate how to forecast the likelihood of defection of individual customers, and formulate a retention campaign optimization model. Professor Dr. Arnd Huchzermeier chaired the session on Consumer Management.

Arnd Huchzermeier and Dmitry Smirnov. The program of the event is available for download. Abstract: We extend the shelf-space allocation problem by including stockout-based substitution and use a competitive interaction framework to account for cross- space-elasticities. The proposed variable neighborhood search allows to incorporate merchandising constraints and solve the problem close to optimality.

We test the solution at a pilot store of a German grocery retailer. The case study presents the logistical and organizational challenges in the German beer retail market. It provides an overview of the market environment presents processes in the beer supply chain as well as describes governmental regulations regarding sustainable packaging solutions. In particular, it presents how a novel tray system for beer bottles introduced by Dutch IFCO Systems was tested together with the Hessenring branch of German retail chain EDEKA and a major German beer brewing group.

This system promises significant advantages concerning handling, transportation and display of beer six packs in both the supply chain for filled bottles as well as returns of empty bottles. Within this setting the case study sheds light on different aspects of retail operations and supply chain management: Sustainable packaging, closed-loop supply chains, supply chain collaboration and green supply chain metrics.

These topics touch different areas of management tasks, both strategic and tactical as well as requiring qualitative and numerical analysis. Reprints: The Case Centre, Ref. The case provides an introduction to the current topic of real options analysis for business students.

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  5. It enables students to simulate relevant management decisions within the context of the volatile Chinese logistics market environment. Also, the case provides students with an overview of the contract logistics market in general. Within the case, a thorough analysis of the market environment and the inherent business risks has to be performed, to properly evaluate the various capacity expansion options available.

    The required analysis could be conducted according to the three suggested assignments, which are split up in consecutive steps and build upon each other.

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    To solve the case, in a first step the market characteristics of the Chinese logistics market have to be identified. Subsequently, the resulting risks for the company''s operations in China need to be examined and potential real options discussed. Finally, the students should, based on quantitative data, valuate a capacity expansion option for the warehouse.

    In this context, a simulation tool for example Crystal Ball should be applied, building a model based on reasonable assumptions that can be derived from information delivered in the case study. The overall design of the case study makes it suitable for students in their senior Bachelor year as well as for MBA programmes and other graduate courses dealing with real option analysis or logistics.

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    To solve the case a general understanding of real options is advantageous. Climate protection and sustainability have evolved into one of the most controversial issues in the first world countries all over the globe. Apart from the commitment of politicians and international organisations, consumers now jump on the bandwagon of ''sustainable products''.

    Taking up this background, the main focus of the case lies on the choice of the optimal global sustainability strategy for companies through appropriate customer communication by using labels. Advanced labelling, such as carbon footprint, is an approach that aims to enable companies to first analyse and then optimise their footprint in accordance to their strategy.

    The analysis of the case provides past experience and first trials of labelling in Germany. The case demonstrates two pilot projects with the companies OTTO and OBI, which followed a guiding system with respect to sustainability for a trial period of three months. With this information the students are asked to develop a more complex idea of the sustainable strategy and labelling by themselves and to relate their insights to possible future development and trends. Therefore, the students first have to investigate the existing labels to reveal where there is room for improvement and potential for applying these labels.

    Based on this, they are asked to evaluate the different labels and find an appropriate approach for the industry of clear and stringent communication. Finally, the students should develop an approach towards a consistent labelling and sustainability strategy that can be applied in the industry with high commitment by the producers and retailers. The case is adequate for MBA and executive education programmes with focus on strategic footprint and operations management. This case presents, for the example of Lufthansa Cargo AG, the status quo of yield management in the air cargo industry.

    It provides insights into the general structure and provides an overview of the competitive forces in the air cargo business. In particular, it presents Lufthansa Cargo AG as the market leader of the world air cargo market and describes its products and strategic view of the industry. It also shows how the company manages capacity utilisation by allocating space for high-margin express products, standard rate bookings, and long-term contracts.

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    It focuses on the types, terms, and pricing of contracts offered and illustrates how the industry's thinking is moving more and more to a paradigm of flexible contract forms and dynamic pricing. The case describes the evolution of the startup company CargoLifter from the concept, to secured funding and the beginning of large scale technical development. The company has proven the concept of a new logistics market, the transport of very heavy and oversized cargo with a newly developed airship.

    The case describes how the original business idea drove technical development, funding, and organisational design. Teaching objectives include: 1 understanding the hurdles that a startup must muster, financing and due diligence, attracting partners, managing market and technology uncertainty and building a new organisation; and 2 understanding how a business is driven from the market side. Landskron Brauerei Goerlitz LKB , a German brewery located on the Polish border, has just been re-privatised in The radical events which unfolded in the autumn of in Germany have taken everyone by surprise.

    The market for LKB has changed dramatically from a centrally planned economy where the brewery possessed almost a monopoly in its region, to a market based economy which; 1 were ''invaded'' by the ''new'' Western-German brewing competitors; 2 called for a new business treatment of the new distribution clients; 3 bred a more demanding consumer; and 4 last but not least, had to deal with the ''imported'' West-German laws and regulations.